Historical
Treasury Bond Yield
Historical treasury bond yield from 1792 through 2010. Knowing and studying treasury bond yields will allow you to forecast
interest rates and bond prices into the future.
Mortgage Interest Rates Track Bond Yields
Treasury bond yields, are a good indicator for... all longer term interest rates, including mortgage interest rates. This chart
of the historical treasury bond yield gives you the power to see into the future.
Chart clearly shows the direction of long
term interest rates as down.
Excerpted with permission of the publisher John Wiley & Sons,Ltd. from Conquer the Crash: You Can
Survive and Prosper in a Deflationary Depression. Copyright 2002 by Robert R. Prechter, Jr. with my chicken scratching below it.
The above chart along with other proprietary cycles indicate that long term interest rates in general will continue flat to lower until 2010.
The chart above is most instructive. Notice that the tops are just about 60 years apart, while the lows occur just about 30 years after the highs. Remember we are talking about long term rates here...the Fed could raise short term rates and long term interest rates can still remain low.
We can expect some minor up blips, but the trend remains down for long term interest rates.
As the economy begins to recover... we can expect the federal reserve to begin raising the short term rates, but at this point in the cycle that should have very little effect on longer term rates....such as mortage rates and long term bond yields.
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Even with historical treasury bond yield information there is risk in trading Futures, Options, Stocks and Commodities, which
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